Forex Focus

Stephen Gallo

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FX markets mask underlying problems

Should we get ready for less stability and more explosive moves in forex markets?

Today, many consummate observers of the forex space would tell you that the competing market forces of ‘risk on’ or ‘risk off’ have - at long last - yielded to more traditional drivers of currencies, such as the ‘relative differentials’...

Tags: federal reserve, finance, forex, japan, quantitative easing, risk, s&p 500, us dollar, yen

ECB liquidity: the good, the bad and the irreparable

Banks’ longer-term borrowing took the ECB’s balance sheet deeper into uncharted territory

The net injection of liquidity at last week’s three year longer-term refinancing operations (LTRO) from the European Central Bank may have missed the more aggressive of market expectations, but the bottom line is that the heavy amounts of longer-term borrowing...

Tags: devaluation, european central bank, finance, liquidity, longer-term refinancing operations (ltro), quantitative easing

Moral hazard can be avoided

But more pain and risk rallies that lose steam abruptly are a likely outcome

Why have the 2011-2012 global “risk rallies” been just “so-so”? The answer to this question lies partly in an understanding of central bank quantitative easing, and partly in an understanding of macroeconomic adjustment with a hint of “moral hazard” avoidance...

Tags: equity markets, euro zone debt crisis, leadership, quantitative easing, risk rallies, us growth

Printing money can help, but not for long

Quantitative easing staves off dramatic weakness in a currency by reducing default risk

The timing of central bank balance sheet expansion - or quantitative easing - is going to be a big driver of G10 currencies throughout 2012. This is easy to understand: printing more of - or debasing the domestic currency -...

Tags: bank distress, currencies, debasement, finance, foreign exchange, quantitative easing, strength

The first "currency war" of 2012?

A further devaluation of the euro will ultimately be seen as a very welcome move

One of the more important currency issues of the New Year has been trying to rationalise the general buoyancy of risk assets - including equities - with the decline in the value of the euro, since the latter has historically...

Tags: currency risks, default risk, devaluation, ecb, euro, finance, liquidity

About Author

Stephen Gallo is head of market analysis at industry leading currency broker, Schneider Foreign Exchange. Stephen is an economic expert and world leading currency analyst and is consistently ranked among Bloomberg’s ten most accurate forex forecasters

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