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FX markets mask underlying problems
Should we get ready for less stability and more explosive moves in forex markets?
Today, many consummate observers of the forex space would tell you that the competing market forces of ‘risk on’ or ‘risk off’ have - at long last - yielded to more traditional drivers of currencies, such as the ‘relative differentials’...
March 21, 2012 2:57 PM Read Full Post
ECB liquidity: the good, the bad and the irreparable
Banks’ longer-term borrowing took the ECB’s balance sheet deeper into uncharted territory
The net injection of liquidity at last week’s three year longer-term refinancing operations (LTRO) from the European Central Bank may have missed the more aggressive of market expectations, but the bottom line is that the heavy amounts of longer-term borrowing...
March 5, 2012 5:13 PM Read Full Post
Moral hazard can be avoided
But more pain and risk rallies that lose steam abruptly are a likely outcome
Why have the 2011-2012 global “risk rallies” been just “so-so”? The answer to this question lies partly in an understanding of central bank quantitative easing, and partly in an understanding of macroeconomic adjustment with a hint of “moral hazard” avoidance...
February 21, 2012 12:09 PM Read Full Post
Printing money can help, but not for long
Quantitative easing staves off dramatic weakness in a currency by reducing default risk
The timing of central bank balance sheet expansion - or quantitative easing - is going to be a big driver of G10 currencies throughout 2012. This is easy to understand: printing more of - or debasing the domestic currency -...
January 30, 2012 3:18 PM Read Full Post
The first "currency war" of 2012?
A further devaluation of the euro will ultimately be seen as a very welcome move
One of the more important currency issues of the New Year has been trying to rationalise the general buoyancy of risk assets - including equities - with the decline in the value of the euro, since the latter has historically...
January 18, 2012 5:17 PM Read Full Post